India Set to Record Highest Rise in Fossil Fuel Emissions Among Major Polluters in 2026

India is expected to be the only major carbon-emitting country to record an increase in fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2026, according to a new global study released during the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, on November 10.

The Global Carbon Budget study projects that India's fossil fuel CO2 emissions will increase by 4.4% compared with the previous year. The projected rise is higher than the country's average annual growth rate of 3.5% recorded over the past decade.

The findings highlight the continuing challenge of balancing India's growing energy requirements with its climate commitments.

Global fossil fuel emissions expected to decline slightly

The study estimates that global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will reach approximately 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026.

This would represent a decline of around 0.4% compared with the estimated 38.4 billion tonnes recorded in 2025.

The projected global reduction is relatively small, indicating that fossil fuel consumption continues to remain a major contributor to worldwide carbon emissions.

The study points to several factors behind the expected decline, including supply disruptions linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict and the continued expansion of renewable energy sources.

India remains an exception among major emitters

While several major economies are expected to record lower fossil fuel emissions, India is projected to move in the opposite direction.

The study forecasts a 4.4% increase in India's emissions in 2026. This is higher than the country's average annual growth of 3.5% over the previous ten years.

India's rising energy demand and continued dependence on fossil fuels remain important factors in understanding the country's emissions trajectory.

The projection makes India a notable exception in the latest global assessment of fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions.

China, US, EU and Japan expected to record declines

The Global Carbon Budget assessment projects that emissions from several other major economies will decline in 2026.

These include:

• China

• United States

• European Union

• Japan

The expected reductions in these regions contribute to the overall global decline projected for fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions.

However, the figures represent estimates for 2026 and do not necessarily indicate a permanent or long-term reduction in emissions.

Renewable energy growth and supply disruptions

The study identifies the expansion of renewable energy as one of the factors contributing to the expected reduction in global fossil fuel emissions.

The increasing use of renewable sources can help reduce dependence on coal, oil and gas for electricity generation and other energy requirements.

At the same time, supply shocks associated with the ongoing US-Iran conflict have also been cited as a factor affecting global fossil fuel emissions.

Together, these developments are expected to influence the global emissions picture in 2026.

Overall greenhouse gas emissions remain a concern

Despite the projected decline in fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions, the broader climate outlook remains challenging.

The State of the Climate Report, released on Monday, indicates that overall greenhouse gas emissions are still rising.

This distinction is important because fossil fuel CO2 emissions represent only one part of the wider greenhouse gas picture.

A decline in emissions from one category does not automatically mean that total greenhouse gas emissions are falling.

Climate challenge continues ahead of COP31 discussions

The latest projections underline the different emissions trends among major economies.

While global fossil fuel CO2 emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, India's projected increase highlights the difficulty of managing rising energy demand while reducing carbon intensity.

The findings add an important dimension to climate discussions at COP31, where countries are addressing emissions reduction, energy transitions and the broader consequences of climate change.

The central challenge remains achieving meaningful and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting the energy and development needs of different countries.